Classic Mayan people: how their population expanded or declined during the rise and fall of their civilization

A new study published today [Thursday 29 May 2025] explores the genetic origins of the Classic Mayan people and investigates how their population expanded or declined during the rise and fall of their civilization. The Classic Maya Civilization was one of the most advanced and sophisticated ancient civilizations in the Americas.

The team’s analysis traces local ancestry back to the Late Archaic period, followed by an influx of highland Mexican ancestry as the ancient Maya city of Classic Copán rose to power. When the civilisation collapsed, signs of population decline emerged. The civilisation flourished primarily in present-day southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and parts of Honduras and El Salvador between roughly 250 CE and 900 CE. The study is published in the journal Current Biology.

The Maya region, a key part of Mesoamerica, has been relatively understudied in ancient genomics, largely because the tropical climate poses serious challenges for ancient DNA preservation. In this study, the team successfully recovered and analysed ancient genomes from seven individuals, from what today is Copán in Honduras, all dated to the Classic period.

In this study, the central question researchers aimed to answer was: what were the genetic origins of the Classic Maya people, and how did their population expand or decline during the rise and fall of their civilization? By investigating these patterns, they hoped to better understand how demographic changes may have been linked to broader social, political, and environmental shifts.

In a world increasingly shaped by climate change, it is critical to understand how human societies have historically responded to environmental stress—whether through resilience, adaptation, or collapse. The fall of the Classic Maya civilization is one of the most compelling and enduring mysteries in human history. By examining their genetic origins and potential population shifts, we can gain new insights into how environmental pressures may have influenced societal change, offering valuable lessons for our own time.

The study was led by geneticist Dr. Shigeki Nakagome, Ussher Assistant Professor in Genomic Medicine, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin.  He said:

“ I have always been deeply interested in human origins, specifically where people come from, how populations moved and interacted, and how cultures evolved over time. The Classic Maya civilization is well-known for its rich history, yet many aspects of their ancestry remain underexplored. By applying ancient genomics, I saw an opportunity to contribute new insights into their population history and help fill in gaps in our understanding of their origins.”

The team’s most surprising finding was the clear signal of ancestry from highland Mexico appearing in individuals from Copán, a major capital at the southeasternmost extreme of the Classic Maya civilisation, supporting the role of gene flow in the formation of the Classic Maya state. 

Dr. Nakagome concluded:

“This research contributes valuable knowledge to the fields of anthropology, archaeology, and human genetics, which can indirectly inform our broader understanding of human diversity and evolution.”

The research team has identified next steps for this research which involves expanding the sample size by analysing more ancient DNA from different Classic Maya states. This will assist in building a more detailed picture of population movements and interactions. Additionally, integrating genetic data with archaeological and environmental evidence will allow them to better understand how social and ecological factors influenced the rise and fall of the Classic Maya civilization.

You can view the full paper:’ Ancient genomes reveal demographic trajectories during the Classic Maya period’ at this link: https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(25)00577-9