Climate change influenced rise and fall of Northern Iraq's Neo-Assyrian Empire
Changes in climate may have contributed to both the rise and
collapse of the Neo-Assyrian Empire in northern Iraq, which was
considered the most powerful empire of its time, according to a new
study. The results suggest that multi-decade megadroughts aligned with
the timing of the empire's collapse in 609 BCE, triggering declines in
the region's agricultural productivity that led to political and
economic demise within 60 years. Previous explanations for the empire's
collapse have focused on political instability and wars; the role of
climate change was largely "ignored," the authors say, in part because
of a lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the region.
Ashish Sinha et al. gathered oxygen and carbon isotopic data from two
stalagmites found in Kuna Ba Cave in northern Iraq, which provide a
precisely dated record of precipitation over the last 4,000 years. These
records indicate that the interval between 850 and 740 BCE (when the
empire was at its zenith) was one of the wettest periods in 4,000 years,
with precipitation levels during the cool season 15 to 30% higher than
during the modern 1980-2007 period. However, the record also suggests
that cool season precipitation during a seventh century BCE megadrought
may have fallen below the level required for productive farming. Since
the empire was highly dependent on agriculture, Sinha and colleagues
conclude the megadrought would have likely exacerbated political unrest
and may have encouraged invading armies that ultimately led to Assyrian
collapse. The authors also note that their data suggest that the recent
multi-year droughts, if they were to continue over a century, would
constitute the worst episodes of regional drought in the last four
millennia.
New research suggests it was climate-related drought that built the
foundation for the collapse of the Assyrian Empire (whose heartland was
based in today's northern Iraq)--one of the most powerful civilizations
in the ancient world. The
Science Advances
paper, led by Ashish Sinha at California State University, Dominguez
Hills and coauthored by CIRES affiliate Adam Schneider, details how
megadroughts in the 7th century BC triggered a decline in Assyria's way
of life that contributed to its ultimate collapse.
Keep reading for a Q&A with Schneider, who was a CIRES researcher from 2015 to 2017:
Q: What role did the Assyrian Empire play in global history?
A: There are people in the archaeological community who say
Neo-Assyria was the first super power in the history of the world. The
Neo-Assyrian empire (912-609 BC) was the third and final phase of
Assyrian civilization. It was by far the largest empire in the region up
to that time, controlling much of the territory from the Persian Gulf
to Cyprus. The Assyrians were basically like the Empire in Star Wars,
they are the all-devouring machine.
They also had incredible skill as hydro-engineers. The Assyrians
were largely responsible for the way that the Tigris River Basin
drainage now works, they completely remade the natural water flows of
that landscape using aqueducts and other hydraulic infrastructure.
Amazingly, some of these features are still functioning today.
Q: How did a culture this powerful collapse?
A: In the final decades of the Neo-Assyrian empire, the
civilization was littered with political instability, civil wars, and
invasion by outside armies. Our study shows that climate-related factors
were underlying all of this.
The Assyrian empire was built during a time of heavy precipitation
and successful harvests. But now we can tell, from climate records, that
the civilization experienced a series of megadroughts that likely
triggered the collapse of the empire--weakening agriculture and
amplifying conflict. The impact of drought in this region was dependent
on where the Assyrians were located in northern Iraq. The Tigris River
is so deeply cut into the surrounding soil that you can't do large
scale-irrigation there. That's why rainfall was so crucial to their
lives. The Assyrians were much more vulnerable to the impacts of
prolonged and severe drought than people downriver.
Q: How are these findings different than previous research?
A: Our team analyzed drip water that got fossilized in two
stalagmites in Kuna Ba Cave in northern Iraq. Because the oxygen and
carbon isotope composition in different layers of the cave formations
can be used to infer changes in precipitation at a high temporal
resolution, we get a much better proxy than anything else we had
previously. And because the isotope record went all the way up to 2007
CE, we were able to correlate the stable carbon and oxygen isotope
ratios with modern instrumental climate information from the region.
This has enabled us to compare the modern isotope data with ancient
layers. We now know that the Assyrian droughts started decades earlier
than we had previously thought, and also that the period prior to the
onset of drought was one of the wettest in the entire roughly 3800-year
sequence. It changes some of the hypotheses we have made.
For example: King Sennacherib, who ruled from 705 to 681 BC, was
well-known for building massive canals and other structures. In our
earlier work on the question of drought in ancient Assyria, I and my
colleague Dr. Selim Adal? had initially viewed him as a short-sighted
ruler who had pursued short-term political goals at the expense of
long-term drought resilience, and set in motion a catastrophic chain of
events as a result. But with this new data, we now think thatSennacherib
probably was already experiencing drought when he was king, and in fact
he may well have been trying to do something about the environmental
calamity during that time. So my colleagues and I have joked about
issuing an apology letter to Sennacherib for the misunderstanding!
Q: How did you find yourself in this area of research: the crossroads between climate and history?
A: Archeology has been my passion since I was a small child. The
climate angle I wanted no part of it, because that was the family
business--my father was a climatologist, and I didn't want to compete.
But in the summer of 2010 he suddenly passed away. At that point I was
without a clear dissertation project and started to rethink the idea of
looking at climatic impacts on ancient people. So it started as a
tribute to my father. I ended up going to a research center in Turkey
and I got hooked. In fact, I very quickly earned the nickname "Climate
Guy" as historians would come ask me if their research had any climatic
basis.
Q: Have there been other times in history, in other places, where climate events impacted political structure like in Assyria?
A: The French Revolution is one example. In the two years prior
to the French Revolution, poor weather led to a series of bad harvests,
which alongside other factors helped to cause the price of bread to
skyrocket, especially in Paris. Another example is the U.S. Dust Bowl in
the 1930's. We saw a mass migration resulting from both climatic and
economic factors during the Great Depression, causing huge changes. It
drove the development and agriculture in southern California. The
question is not, "Did climate have an impact?"--it's: "How, why, and how
important was climate alongside the other factors?"
Q: What about modern day?
A: If you look at the record, the Assyrian Megadrought and what I
have called the Late Assyrian Dry Phase is one of two of the most
extreme periods of dry conditions in the entire 3800 year sequence for
northern Iraq. The other one is the present day. Our working assumption
here is that the latter is being driven at least in part by
anthropogenic climate change.
Obviously, today Iraq is a very different place than it was in 700
B.C. But it's not hard to look at that country's problems with internal
political stability and sectarian strife to think about the additional
issue of drought leading to further trouble in that region.